ELLIOT MARTIN'S "MOON" MISSION by Susan Granger

WHO WILL WIN THE 78th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS? by Susan Granger

     There's excitement. There's pleasure. There's disappointment. There are beguiling actors and actresses in eye-catching outfits. But is there going to be much suspense at the 78^th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday night? Not unless "Crash" finds a way to conquer "Brokeback Mountain." Or Felicity Huffman beats the odds to win Best Actress.

     After winning almost all the critics' awards, along with both the coveted Producers Guild and Directors Guild accolades, the height of acclaim for director Any Lee and "Brokeback Mountain" seems too daunting for any other picture to climb. "Brokeback Mountain" has eight nominations and, for the past 20 years, the movie with the most nominations has won Best Picture 17 times. Not last year, when "Million Dollar Baby" shot down "The Aviator," but usually.

     Yet when the "Brokeback" stars, Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal, openly mocked their gay cowboy roles at the SAG Awards, their bizarre buffoonery touched on the picture's vulnerability. Straight men in the audience wish it was less about sex and gay men wish it were more. On the other hand, the two shirts worn by Ledger and Gyllenhaal in the picture just sold for more than $101,000 in an online auction to benefit the Variety Children's Charity of Southern California.

     In Hollywood, many voters had heightened expectations and were bored with the "Brokeback" hoopla, despite the fact that it's been 12 years since Jonathan Demme's "Philadelphia," about a homophobic lawyer defending an AIDS patient, won the Oscar. Of course, that was less a romance (the gay couple didn't kiss) than a courtroom drama about fighting for justice. Another chink in the "Brokeback" armor is that it wasn't nominated for Best Editing; the last time a best picture won without an Editing nod was "Ordinary People" in 1980.

     In my opinion, Paul Haggis' "Crash," a compellingly original and complex parable about racism in Los Angeles, is a far better picture. Like classic Greek tragedy, I certainly found it the most thought-provoking film of 2005. Problem is: Oscar is notorious for its short-term memory. Of the Best Picture candidates, up to 70% are released in November and December and "Crash" was released in May. Plus, older Oscar voters may find "Crash" too inflammatory.

     As for the other Best Picture contenders - "Munich," "Capote" and "Good Night and Good Luck" - they are, indeed, long shots. "Munich" was saddled with great expectations before anyone had seen it and hampered by a misguided publicity strategy in which Steven Spielberg announced that he would not do interviews - except for a "Time" cover story. That not only alienated many in the press corps but hurt a movie that badly needed to be explained. "Capote" is, essentially, a performance-driven piece that lacks an emotional punch. And "Good Night and Good Luck" appeals, primarily, to senior Oscar voters who remember newscaster Edward R. Murrow and the terrifying McCarthy era.

     These are excellent, socially conscious films - reflecting the fact that politics surrounds us. It's natural that the best movies are going to be about what's going on in people's everyday lives, the human condition. Yet, repeatedly, "heart" has triumphed over the more intellectual endeavors in this category, so it's back to "Brokeback."

     Honoring these five high-quality films represents a triumph of art over commerce, which is the mission of the Academy, but perhaps it reflects a massive disconnect with popular culture. The fact is that the telecast needs viewers and, for that reason, Oscar producers each year try to improve the show's format, yet nothing they can devise can rival the enthusiasm generated by a box-office giant like "Titanic." Last year, for example, an average of 41.5 million people nationwide watched the Oscars, compared to a record 55 million in 1998, when "Titanic" swept the awards. Gone are the days when "Gone With the Wind"-type entertainment ruled.

     Keep in mind that an Oscar nomination is the gift that keeps on giving. Five months after it first hit stores, DVD sales for "Crash" jumped 150% after the film scored six nominations, including Best Picture. Also benefiting are "Cinderella Man," "The Constant Gardener," "Pride & Prejudice," "Hustle & Flow" and "North Country," which scored nominations in acting categories. In same cases, studios have changed the release date of a film to ensure that its DVD debut coincides with awards season. Yet releasing an Academy Award winner DVD just after the ceremony still promises the biggest bump in sales, which is why "Brokeback Mountain," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," "Jarhead," "King Kong," "Breakfast on Pluto" are not available yet, but "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" will be in the video store next Tuesday.

MY CHOICE: "Crash"

MY PREDICTION: "Brokeback Mountain"

   In the Best Director race, Ang Lee is 'way out front for "Brokeback Mountain." Even if it doesn't win Best Picture, I suspect Ang Lee will win Best Director as acknowledgment for his entire body of work., particularly "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." Ang Lee really understood the depth and range of the two cowboys and realized that their love couldn't be fully realized in the world in which they existed. As he puts it, "I just set out to tell a story about the complexity of life and love."

     If he doesn't win, the prize will go to Paul Haggis, who actually suffered a heart attack and underwent a quadruple angioplasty while making "Crash." Luckily, he was able to return to work two weeks latr.

     Other nominees include Steven Spielberg ("Munich"), Bennett Miller ("Capote") and George Clooney ("Good Night and Good Luck"), who will attend the Oscars for the first time. He's always refused in the past, preferring to wait until he was nominated. Actually, Clooney has already made Oscar history. This is the first time a nominee for Best Director has also been nominated in one of the acting categories for a different film, "Syriana", a searing take on the relationship among the U.S. government, oil companies and Mid-East leadership.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Ang Lee

     In the four acting categories, 14 out of the 20 nominations go to first-time contenders.

     In the Best Actor race, Philip Seymour Hoffman is undoubtedly the favorite for "Capote." Playing the flamboyant, privileged socialite Truman Capote, a well known literary figure, is just one more notch on the belt of the highly admired, well-liked character actor who was the lovesick porn assistant in "Boogie Nights," the emotionally fragile nurse in "Magnolia," the sleazy tabloid reporter in "Red Dragon" and appears with Tom Cruise in "Mission Impossible III."

     If he loses, it will be to Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain"), who also scored as the most famous heterosexual lover in "Casanova." Other contenders include Joaquin Phoenix ("Walk the Line"), who played Johnny Cash; David Strathairn ("Good Night and Good Luck"), who embodied Edward R. Murrow; and Terence Howard ("Hustle & Flow"), whose searing intensity and offbeat charm as a street-smart Memphis pimp determined to make it as a musician nabbed the spot that would have gone to Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man") if the volatile Aussie hadn't behaved like such a jerk.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Philip Seymour Hoffman

     In the Best Actress category, the competition is between Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash in "Walk the Line" and Felicity Huffman for her spunky, gender-bending performance in "Transamerica." Both actresses won Golden Globes - Reese for comedy/musical and Felicity for drama. The difference is that roughly only about 300,000 people so far have seen Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica," which is less than 1% of the weekly viewers who watch her on TV's "Desperate Housewives."

     Although Reese fills the young, sexy, pretty profile of the typical winner - and certainly she's funny, touching and convincing as the moral conscience of "Walk the Line" - there is one additional factor in Felicity's favor. Because so few Academy members saw "Transamerica" in theaters, they've relied on DVD screeners, and statistics show that voters often cast their ballots for what they've seen most recently. Harvey Weinstein wisely held back sending copies of "Transamerica" to all branches of the Academy until after Felicity Huffman received her nomination. Never underestimated Harvey Weinstein's sly savvy.

     Long shots in this category are statuesque Charlize Theron ("North Country"), who won a Best Actress Oscar for playing against her glamour in 2003's "Monster," Judi Dench ("Mrs Henderson Presents"), who won a Supporting Actress Oscar as Queen Elizabeth in 1998's "Shakespeare in Love"; and 20 year-old newcomer Keira Knightley ("Pride & Prejudice") whose high spirits and youthful exuberance made her performance memorable.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
     It's good to see William Hurt back in the game. Almost 20 years after he landed three best Actor nods in a row ("Kiss of the Spider Woman," "Children of a Lesser God," "Broadcast News"), he's garnered his first Best Supporting Actor nod. Throughout his career, Hurt has fought passionately for pre-shoot rehearsals. On some films, including 1983's "The Big Chill" and 2004's "The Village," he's succeeded. But more often than not, it's a fight he loses. To play the Philadelphia mob boss coming to brutal terms with his estranged brother in "A History of Violence," he arrived on the set in Canada 10 days early to rehearse with Viggo Mortensen with the consent of director David Cronenberg. But don't expect him to win.

     Gifted Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man") was snubbed when "Sideways" took so many awards last year yet he wasn't included in their accolades; voters are aware of that slight. This time, he was beautifully nuanced as the boxing manager in Ron Howard's Depression-era drama. On the other hand, George Clooney ("Syriana") has had a career-breakthrough year; he didn't just put on weight and grow a beard - he made his CIA operative/hit-man character sympathetic and totally believable. He's formidable in this race since "Syriana" is not in the running for Best Picture.

     Other contenders are Jake Gyllenhaal ("Brokeback Mountain"), who gave vulnerability to the bull-riding, rodeo-roping smooth-talker, and Matt Dillon ("Crash), a former teen idol whose racist cop brazenly groped an Africa-American woman (Thandie Newton) right in front of her husband (Terence Howard).

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: George Clooney

     For Best Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") looks like a shoo-in for the political thriller after winning at the Golden Globes and SAG. Weisz has requested that people who respond to the film check out www.constantgardenertrust.com and donate money to their cause. They've already gone back to the poor areas of Kenya, where they shot the film, and built two schools and a bridge. "The message of the film is that if you can help one person, that's better than not doing anything," she asserts.

     But she should be wary of the sentiment favoring Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain"), previously best known as semi-bad-girl Jen on "Dawson's Creek." Voters often like to give away at least one acting award with Best Picture. Usually, it's in lead acting - Hilary Swank ("Million Dollar Baby") or Russell Crowe ("Gladiator") - but, failing that, there's the Supporting Actor category - Catherine Zeta-Jones ("Chicago"), Juliette Binoche ("The English Patient"), Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind").

     Giving Weisz and Williams stiff competition, are effervescent newcomer Amy Adams ("Junebug"), understated Catherine Keener ("Capote") and powerful Frances McDormand ("North Country").

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Rachel Weisz

     In the Best Documentary category, it's interesting to note that "March of the Penguins" has been watched by more moviegoers than any of the five nominated Best Picture contenders. That tells you something about this year's entire roster. Competing against the penguins are "Darwin's Nightmare," "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," "Murderball" and "Street Fight."

     "Penguins" writer/director Luc Jacquet is elated, just to be nominated, noting, "To come from no budget to this is astonishing."

     About "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," filmmaker Alex Gibney said it was particularly ironic that his Oscar nomination was announced the day after the Enron executives' trial began: "I don't think it affects the trial, but it gives people a window into the trial. I always intended it as a morality tale. It's like the Titanic, where a few people in first class rode away while the rest drowned."

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: "March of the Penguins"

"Audiences don't know somebody sits down and writes a picture," mutters the cynical screenwriter played by William Holden in Billy Wilder's classic "Sunset Boulevard" (1950). "They think the actors make it up as they go along." Maybe so, but some superb writers are nominated this year.

For Best Adapted Screenplay, it's Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for "Brokeback Mountain," Dan Futterman for "Capote," Jeffrey Caine for "The Constant Gardener," Josh Olson for "A History of Violence," Tony Kushner and Eric Roth for "Munich."

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: "Brokeback Mountain" - because while the theme of romantic tragedy recurs in literature, the way this movie handles it has not been seen on the screen before. In addition, the screenwriters kept short-story author E. Annie Proulx's voice and enriched it, and the Academy often rewards risk-takers.

For Best Original Screenplay, I'm partial to Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco for "Crash" because they were willing to confront some of those unspoken realities we all know about race. "No one paid Paul and me to write this script," says Bobby Moresco. "We didn't think anyone would make it. We didn't think anyone would see it. It's not autobiographical but there were incidents in our lives that we both drew on."

Close behind are George Clooney and Grant Heslov for "Good Night and Good Luck." Then there's Woody Allen for "Match Point," Noah Baumback for "The Squid and the Whale" and Steven Gaghan for "Syriana." Several people have criticized Gaghan because they found "Syriana" confusing; on the contrary, I felt its complexity was like a pointillist painting. What's confusing is that the screenplay doesn't unfold as one might expect, but at the end of the film you can comprehend the scope and design.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: "Crash"

In the Best Animated Film category, there are only three nominees: "How's Moving Castle," "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" and "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit."

It's curious that none of them are CG vehicles. Instead, the hottest contender, the whimsical "Wallace & Gromit," was created by an old technique called stop-motion animation, sometimes known as Claymation, although it doesn't strictly involve clay, and Tim Burton's "Bride" featured a puppet cast. "The Academy's choices this year are very interesting," "Wallace & Gromit" creator Nick Park said. "They opted for traditional less commercial animation."

MY CHOICE: "Howl's Moving Castle," honoring Hayao Miyazki's sheer genius

MY PREDICTION: the popular "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit"

     In the Best Foreign Film category, it's "Don't Tell" (Italy), "Joyeux Noel" (France), "Paradise Now" (Palestine), "Sophie Scholl - The Final Days" (Germany), and "Tsotsi" (South Africa).

     "Don't Tell" deals with a woman whose reawakened childhood memories propel her to seek out her brother in the United States, where she uncovers a painful family secret of incest. Inspired by a true incident in which British, French and German soldiers spontaneously called a truce on Christmas Eve, "Joyeaux Noel" ("Merry Christmas") is set in the trenches in 1914 during World War I and carries an anti-war message. "Sophie Scholl - The Final Days" tells the true story of Germany's most famous anti-Nazi heroine, a determined Munich student who was beheaded for distributing counter-propaganda leaflets in 1943. And "Tsotsi" (which means "thug" in South African slang) traces six days in the life of a young Johannesburg township gang leader who steals a woman's car - unaware, in his panic, that her baby is in the back seat.

     While most of these features are just being released here, "Paradise Now," director Hany Abu-Assad's sympathetic depiction of what drives two Palestinian men to become suicide bombers, has already pushed hot-buttons in Israel.

     "For me, there is no difference between this film and Nazi propaganda. It is a scandal to honor a film that preaches the killing of innocent people," notes Yoram Ben-Ami, the Israeli-born president of Los Angeles-based Triumph Pictures.

     Curiously, one of the year's strongest contenders, "Cache" ("Hidden"), about a Parisian family stalked by someone videotaping them, was disqualified on a technicality. Its director, Michael Haneke, is Austrian and Austria submitted it to the Academy. But its dialogue is in French, and the rules say the film has to be predominantly in the language of the submitting country.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: "Tsoti"

Onto the musical section - Best Original Score - in which Gustavo Santaolalla ("Brokeback Mountain") competes with Albert Iglesias ("The Constant Gardener") Dario Marianelli ("Pride & Prejudice") and John Williams ("Memoirs of a Geisha" and "Munich."). While three of the composers are first-time nominees, John Williams has already notched a record-breaking number of Oscar nominations over the years. His total of 45 now stands in second place among all-time Academy Award nominees, behind only Walt Disney's 59. "And he had a whole studio behind him!" Williams marvels.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Gustavo Santaolalla for "Brokeback Mountain" because Santaolla's work is appreciated greatly by musicians, and the delicate subject matter lets his score soar.

With only three Best Song nominees, perhaps the Academy has realized that this category is working its way towards elimination. There's "In the Deep" from "Crash" or "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow" or "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica."

Parton's is a feel-good, twangy country-pop song. "I didn't know (they wanted a song) until the movie was done," she reveals. "I had one day off during my national tour and we happened to be close by Nashvilla. We went into the studio, and I got my band in and did it, then and there, and mixed it the next morning.It was quick and it was good."

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: Dolly Parton's "Travelin Thru," primarily because she's often quite hilarious so her acceptance speech should be a hoot!

For Visual Effects, the competition is between "King Kong" and "War of the Worlds." But they shouldn't even be rivals. From its spectacular concept, "King Kong" is a visual effects-driven masterpiece whose lead character is, in essence, a non-speaking special effect. But the three-hour Peter Jackson ("Lord of the Rings") opus became the latest in a string of action pictures that couldn't live up to the hype - or budget. "Kong" cost a reported $207 million, which doesn't include the ad campaign, and has become a cautionary tale about overselling big-budget fare.

In contrast, "War of the Worlds" had perhaps the year's best single visual effect, the "Fleeing the Neighborhood" alien-invasion sequence, along with its models-and-miniatures work. The third contender is "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" which, while intriguing, was not in the category of the two other nominees.

MY CHOICE and MY PREDICTION: "King Kong"

     Inosfar as some of the lesser-category Oscars, the Academy has wisely abandoned the awkward handing out of awards to recipients scattered in the audience. Producer Gil Cates admits that it was intended to speed the show up but ended up just looking tacky. Instead, they will probably move nominees in these categories from their assigned seats in the back of the theater into specially reserved seats in the third and fourth rows prior to their respective presentations. That way, winners would not have to walk too far to get to the stage to accept their statues.

     For Art Direction and for Costume Design, I predict "Memoirs of a Geisha."

     For Cinematography, I predict "Brokeback Mountain."

     For Film Editing, I predict "Crash"

     For Make-Up, I predict "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe."

      For Sound Editing, I predict "King Kong."

      For Sound Mixing, I predict "Walk the Line."

     I have not seen the nominees for Documentary Short, Live Action Short and Short Animated Film because they're not shown to critics nor exhibited in theaters.

     Oscar production designer Roy Christopher has created a homage to movie theater design, complete with a 65-foot-long giant "Oscar" marquee, a pair of 20-foot-tall frosted glass statuettes, an art deco box-office and several movie screens, ranging from the traditional, elegant movie palace to the gigantic wide-screen deco.

     "Last year's show was distinguished by a high-tech, 'cutting edge' style," he explains. "So, this year, there's nothing hi-tech - it's a no-holds-barred return to classic Hollywood glamour, paying homage to the classic, ornate movie theaters."

     One concluding note: don't bet on any of these choices! They're simply educated guesswork. Hooray for Hollywood!

OSCAR SIDEBAR:

The 13 ½"-inch tall Oscar weighs a robust 8 ½ pounds.

Initially, the Oscar was gold-plated bronze but, today, he's made of gold-plated britannium, a metal alloy that enhances the smooth finish. He hasn't been altered since his molten birth in 1929, except when the design of the pedestal was made higher in 1945.

The Academy never knows how many statuettes it will actually hand out until the envelopes are opened on Oscar night because of the possibility of ties and multiple recipients sharing the prize in some categories. As in previous years, any surplus Oscars will be stored in the Academy's vault until 2007.

Prior to 1949, the statuettes were not numbered. Since that year, starting with a somewhat arbitrary #501, each Oscar has worn his serial number behind his heels.

In 2005, 311 feature films were eligible for Oscars, marking a 16.5% increase from 2004.

The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences is a professional honorary organization composed of more than 6,500 voting members, filmmakers who have reached the top of their craft.

Jon Stewart of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" will be hosting the telecast. He has appeared in several motion pictures, including "Death to Smoochy," "Big Daddy," "The Faculty" and "Playing by Heart."

The ceremonies will begin at 8 p.m. (EST) on Sunday, March 5, 2006, and will be broadcast live from the Kodak Theater at Hollywood & Highland by ABC-TV.