2021 OSCAR PREDICTIONS by Susan Granger
The date of March 27th is one of the Academy’s favorites on the cinematic calendar. This year’s will be the fourth ceremony held on that date. The first was in 1957, when the Best Foreign Film category was added; the second was in 1973, when “The Godfather” vied with “Cabaret”; and in 1995, David Letterman hosted one of Oscar’s most watched Oscar telecasts – with a U.S. audience of 48 million-plus.
This coming Sunday, the 94th annual Academy Awards at Los Angeles’ Dolby Theater will be hosted by three comediennes: Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes and Regina Hall. (The Oscars have gone host-free since the 90th ceremony with Jimmy Kimmel.)
Years ago – when “Titanic,” “The Godfather,” and “Lord of the Rings” won – they reflected populists tastes too. But when “The Dark Knight” failed to get a nomination, suddenly the Oscars seemed less relevant. So, in addition to the usual 23 categories, this year the Academy will include a “Twitter fan favorite,” making space for popular picks like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “No Time to Die.”
Because of the Academy’s push for diversity and inclusion, 4,421 of the Academy’s approximately 9,400 current active members are relatively new and many of them foreign. That makes the winners on a preferential ballot harder to predict since non-English films are more visible than ever.
Nevertheless, as tragedy continues to rage around the globe, it’s hoped that the motion picture industry still gives people laughter, hope and inspiration.
Among the 276 eligible films, there are 10 contenders for Best Picture (in alphabetical order):
“Belfast” is Kenneth Branagh’s poignant memoir about growing up in Northern Ireland in 1969
“CODA” is an acronym for Child of Deaf Adults. This heart-tugging family drama was considered the underdog until it won the SAG Ensemble Award & Producer Guild. It’s the feel-good movie for these dark times.
“Don’t Look Up” is Adam McKay’s scorching, end-of-the-world satire with a star-studded cast
“Drive My Car” is Japan’s three-hour drama about a widowed theater director and his driver
“Dune” is Denis Villenueve’s visual spectacular, escapist, sci-fi saga
“King Richard” revolves around the demanding father of the tennis-champion Williams sisters
“Licorice Pizza” is Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘70s comedy set in the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s
“Nightmare Alley” is Guillermo del Toro’s downbeat remake of a hardboiled noir classic
“The Power of the Dog” profiles a Montana rancher in conflict with his brother and his new wife
“West Side Story”: This energetic, updated musical is Steven Spielberg’s 12th Best Film nomination, extending his lead as the most nominated filmmaker in this category.
The favorites are “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog,” both made by streamers and both directed by women. The Best Picture statuette is given to the film’s producers, not its director, and – once again – it will be the final award in the telecast. Last year, they expected Chadwick Boseman to be Best Actor and had planned a tribute to the late actor. Instead. Anthony Hopkins was the surprise winner.
MY PREDICTION: “CODA”
For Best Director, nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”), Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”), Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”). There have been 26 picture/director splits, including five in the past decade.
Predictably, one international director (Hamaguchi) got the nod, but many voters may assume he’ll win in the international category. With eight nominations spanning six decades, Spielberg already has two wins (“Schindler’s List,” “Saving Private Ryan”). Paul Thomas Anderson was nominated twice before (“There Will Be Blood,” “Phantom Thread”).
Writer/actor Kenneth Branagh is now the first person to be nominated in seven different categories, so he seems overdue for a win, while Jane Campion (“The Piano”), winner of the Directors’ Guild Award, is the first woman ever to be nominated twice in this category. If she wins, she’ll be the third woman, following Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”).
MY PREDCTION: Jane Campion
For Best Actor, nominees are Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick…Boom!”), Will Smith (“King Richard”), and Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”).
A real-life couple – Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz – were both nominated in these Leading categories, although neither is expected to win. Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield and Will Smith have been nominated previously but have not won in this category. And it’s been 12 years since the winner didn’t come from a Best Pic nominee.
MY PREDICTION: Will Smith
For Best Actress, nominees are Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”), and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer).
For the second year in a row, this race is wide open since none of the nominees is from a Best Picture contender. Although she was shut out of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Kristen Stewart nabbed her first Oscar nomination. Although she was nominated for “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), Jessica Chastain has never won in this category. Perhaps this is her year. It’s a real nail-biter!
MY PREDCTION: Jessica Chastain
For Best Supporting Actor, nominees are Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”), Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”) and J.K. Simons “(Being the Ricardos”).
Another real-life couple – Jesse Plemons and Kirsten Dunst – were both nominated in supporting categories this year, and Kodi Smit-McPhee won almost all the Critics’ Awards. But Troy Kotsur, as the proud fisherman struggling to relate to his music-loving daughter, is the first deaf man to earn an Oscar nod for acting and he already won the coveted Screen Actors Guild Award.
MY PREDICTION: Toby Kotsur
For Best Supporting Actress, nominees are Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”).
Perhaps the biggest shock was that Rita Moreno wasn’t nominated; it would have been a sentimental bookend to her win for the original “West Side Story” in 1961. In her place, there’s Ariana DeBose, who really is Puerto Rican and turned down the role four times before auditioning. Voters in this category seem to love newcomers and DeBose’s is the splashiest.
MY PREDICTION: Ariana DeBose
For Best Original Screenplay, nominees are “Belfast,” “Don’t Look Up,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” and “The Worst Person in the World.”
Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”) broke his own record for the most different categories in which one person has been nominated (Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Live Action Short). Based on his childhood memories, “Belfast” is a love letter to a city and its disintegrating peace.
MY PREDICTION: “Belfast”
For Best Adapted Screenplay, nominees are “CODA,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “The Lost Daughter” and “The Power of the Dog.”
Jane Campion already won a Best Original Screenplay Oscar in 1993 for “The Piano.” Will she win again? Or will it be Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter”? If Gyllenhaal wins, she’d be the first screenwriter in the 21st century to do so without the film also being a Best Picture nominee.
MY PREDICTION: “CODA”
For Best Cinematography, nominees are “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “West Side Story.”
Vividly capturing vast Montana vistas with haunting, psychological horror, Ari Wegner (“The Power of the Dog”) is only the 2nd woman ever nominated in this category, following Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”). Bruno Delbonnel contrasted light and shadow for Macbeth’s tragedy, weaving Shakespeare’s deep psychological threads, while Janusz Kaminski juggled flares to augment the violent gang-fight sequence in “West Side Story.”
MY PREDICTION: “The Power of the Dog”
For Best Costume Design, nominees are “Cruella,” “Cyrano,” “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley” and “West Side Story.”
From the fantasy sci-fi world of “Dune” to ‘70s London scene in “Cruella,” costumers faced interesting challenges. Indeed, Guillermo Del Toro’s longtime costumer Luis Sequeira assembled 242 costumes for “Nightmare Alley,” aging them to look like they’ve been in and out of trunks for years.
MY PREDICTION: “Cruella”
For Best Visual Effects, nominees are “Dune,” “Free Guy,” “No Time to Die,” “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” was last year’s biggest hit, yet this is its only Oscar nomination. But it’s hard to beat the way Denis Villenueve used VFX to heighten the photorealism of “Dune.”
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Makeup and Hairstyling, nominees are “Coming to America 2,” “Cruella,” “Dune,” “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” and “House of Gucci.”
“Coming 2 America” showed Eddie Murphy and Arsenio Hall as many different characters, yet it was absolute magic how artisans used prosthetics to transform Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye Bakker; a process that took two hours every day.
MY PREDICTION: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
For Best Documentary, nominees are “Ascension,” “Attica,” “Flee,” “Summer of Soul,” and “Writing With Fire.”
Denmark’s “Flee” about an Afghan refugee is the first film ever nominated as Best Documentary, Best International Feature and Best Animation. If I were an Oscar voter, it would be my choice. On the other hand, the musical time-capsule “Summer of Soul” is the Sundance hit, winning the Spirit Award.
MY PREDICTION: “Summer of Soul”
For Best International Film, nominees are “Drive My Car” (Japan), “Flee” (Denmark), “The Hand of God” (Italy), “Luana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan), and “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway).
As always, it doesn’t matter what language is spoke; the only thing that counts is the artistry.
Every year, there’s a longshot. Last year, it was Tunisia’s “The Man Who Sold His Skin.” This year, it’s Pawo Choyning Dorji’s “Luana: A Yak in the Classroom” from the tiny, long-isolated nation of Bhutan, which became the world’s last country to open to TV and the Internet in 1999. It’s about a reluctant teacher who is dispatched to remote Luana and his friendship with a yak herder; distributed by Samuel Goldwyn Films, it’s available on many cable and streaming channels.
MY PREDICTION: “Drive My Car”
For Best Animation, nominees are “Encanto,” “Flee,” “Luca,” “The Mitchells vs. the Machines,” and “Raya and the Last Dragon.”
Disney dominates this category with “Encanto,” “Luca,” and “Raya,” yet “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” won at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards. It uses different animation techniques to tell the story of an aspiring filmmaker and her family save the world from a software-driven apocalypse – and it’s been promoted by the most active Oscar campaign since the days of Harvey Weinstein.
MY PREDICTION: “Encanto”
This year, the Academy will present the following eight Awards off-camera – to be acknowledged later in the ‘live’ broadcast, explaining, “When deciding how to produce the Oscars, we recognize it’s a live event television show an we must prioritize the television audience to increase viewer engagement and keep the show vital, kinetic and relevant.”
For Best Editing, nominees are “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “Tick, Tick…Boom!” The American Cinema Editors (ACE) chose “King Richard” as best dramatic feature and “tick, tick…Boom!” as best comedy.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Production Design, nominees are “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “West Side Story.”
Working with Guillermo de Toro, first-time nominee Tamara Deverell delved into art history for “Nightmare Alley,” building an eye-popping carnival from ground up on location in Toronto. For the pivotal “West Side Story” fight, Adam Stockhausen found a sanitation department salt shed with high windows, set near a highway off-ramp.
The Art Directors Guild cited “Nightmare Alley” as period feature, “Dune” as fantasy feature and “No Time to Die” as contemporary feature. FYI: for ”Dune,” artisans built three different worlds and invented a new mode of transportation.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Sound, nominees are “Belfast,” Dune,” “No Time to Die,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “West Side Story.”
The aural experience of “Dune” seems hard to beat with sandworms and orinthopters, as well as fierce desert storms. FYI: the subtle, crunching sound when Paul Atreides (Timothee Chalmet) steps on the ‘spice-laden sand’ (a valuable, hallucinogenic substance) on the planet Arrakis was created when the sound editors laced the sand underfoot with Rice Krispies and recorded.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Original Score, nominees are “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “Encanto,” “Parallel Mothers,” and “The Power of the Dog.”
Germaine Franco (“Encanto”) is the 10th woman and first Latina nominee in this category. On the other hand, this is the 12th nomination for Hans Zimmer (“Duna”), who won in 1994 for “The Lion King.” His score features a bagpipe player and a cellist whose sound was twisted into a Tibetan long horn.
MY PREDICTION: “Dune”
For Best Original Song, nominees are “Be Alive” (“King Richard”), “Dos Oruguitas” (“Encanto”), “Down to Joy” (Belfast”), “No Time to Die” (“No Time to Die”), and “Somehow You Do” (“Four Good Days”).
While Diane Warren (“Four Good Days”) nabs her 5th consecutive Oscar nomination in this category, her 7th in the last 8 years and her 12th overall, if she doesn’t win, she’ll break her own record for the most noms in this category without a win. In contrast, Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Encanto”) has an opportunity to become the 17th person to win an Emmy/Grammy/Oscar/Tony Grand Slam known as the EGOT. And if Billie Eilish (“No Time to Die”) wins, she’ll become the category’s youngest-ever winner.
MY PREDICTION: “No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
For Best Documentary (short subject), nominees are “Audible,” “Lead Me Home,” “The Queen of Basketball,” “Three Songs for Benazir,” and “When We Were Bullies.”
There’s a feel-good story about a pioneering woman basketball player and a personal probing of a childhood bullying incident, along with a sweeping portrait of the homeless crisis in three major U.S. cities, a rare glimpse of a deaf high school football team and a peek at life inside an Afghani refugee camp.
MY PREDICTION: “Queen of Basketball”
For Best Live Action Short, nominees are “Ala Kachu – Take and Run,” “The Dress,” “The Long Goodbye,” “On My Mind,” and “Please Hold.”
Riz Ahmed was nominated as Best Actor as the drummer losing his hearing in “Sound of Metal,” and now he’s back with a second nomination – this time for “The Long Goodbye” about a British/Pakistani family’s ill-fated encounter with far-right marchers.
MY PREDICTION: “The Long Goodbye”
For Best Animated Short, nominees are “An Affair of the Art,” “Bestia,” “Boxballet,” “Robin Robin,” and “The Windshield Wiper.”
MY PREDICTION: “Robin Robin”