Susan Grangerâs 2024 OSCAR PREDICTIONS:
Jimmy Kimmel hosts the 96th Academy Awards, airing Sunday, March 10 on ABC.
The most important difference between 2024 and previous years is the increasing internationalization of the 9,800-member Academy since the #OscarsSoWhite influx of new members after 2015. The Academy revealed that members from 93 countries cast nomination ballots this year; international members now comprise 25% of the total voters.
Many of them are accustomed to watching films with subtitles, which helps to explain how âAnatomy of a Fall,â â Past Livesâ and âThe Zone of Interestâ landed best picture noms, along with the directors of âAnatomyâ (Triet) and âZoneâ (Glazer). The star of âAnatomyâ (HĂŒller) got a lead actress nod and the Japanese film âThe Boy and the Heronâ was chosen for animation. And all five documentary nominees came from outside the United States.
To put this into perspective, itâs been 20 years since the yearâs biggest blockbuster – 2003âs âLord of the Rings: The Return of the Kingâ – took best picture. Last year, âAvatar: The Way of Waterâ and âTop Gun: Maverickâ made the cut, but an art house film – âEverything Everywhere All at Onceâ – won. This year, it will be âOppenheimer,â grossing nearly $1 billion worldwide; with 13 nominations, it could break the record for the most Oscar wins in one night.
Here are the 10 Best Picture nominees:
âAmerican Fictionâ: a biting satire about racial representation
âAnatomy of a Fallâ: a twisty whodunit courtroom thriller
âBarbieâ: a candy-colored feminist comedy skewering patriarchy
âThe Holdoversâ: misadventures in a 1970s Christmas dramedy
âKillers of the Flower Moonâ: a tragic historical crime drama
âMaestroâ: Leonard Bernsteinâs complicated marital love story
âOppenheimerâ: a biopic about physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer
âPast Livesâ: an Asian-American romance between childhood friends
âPoor Thingsâ: a surreal, feminist âFrankensteinâ gender-bender
âThe Zone of Interestâ: a Holocaust drama about the banality of evil
MY PREDICTION: âOppenheimerâ
For Best Director, nominees are Jonathan Glazer (âThe Zone of Interestâ), Yogos Lanthimos (âPoor Thingsâ), Christopher Nolan (âOppenheimerâ), Martin Scorsese (âKillers of the Flower Moonâ) & Justine Triet (âAnatomy of a Fallâ).
Controversy concerns the omission of âBarbieâ director Greta Gerwig, the first filmmaker in history to have her first three solo features – âLady Bird,â âLittle Womenâ & âBarbieâ – nominated for best picture.
Nominees are selected by the Directors branch consisting of just 587 voters – about a quarter of whom are women. Historically, however, this highbrow group has rejected mainstream, even blockbuster, studio fare, choosing three directors who live and work primarily in Europe. Thatâs probably why Justine Triet – only the 8th woman ever nominated – squeezed in, while Alexander Payne (âThe Holdoversâ) was excluded.
Yet the odds-on favorite is Christopher Nolan, winner of the Directors Guild Award. FYI: he doesnât own a telephone; the only way to contact him is via his wife/producing partner Emma Thomas.
MY PREDICTION: Christopher Nolan
Back in 2009, five previous Acting winners introduced the nominees in the four Acting categories; that segment was so popular that the Academy plans to repeat it for the five current contenders. Although the Academy never reveals who will be presenting which awards, you can bet that last yearâs four winners – Brendan Fraser, Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Jamie Lee Curtis – will be among them.
For Best Actress, nominees are Annette Bening (âNyadâ), Lily Gladstone (âKillers of the Flower Moonâ), Sandra Huller (âAnatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (âMaestroâ) & Emma Stone (âPoor Thingsâ).
Lily Gladstone is the first Native American nominated in this category; her quiet performance as Mollie Burkhardt highlights the filmâs most riveting and powerful moments. But she doesnât propel the picture the way Emma Stone captures woman/child in the feminist Frankenstein gender-bender. Itâs the fifth nomination for Annette Bening, whoâs a long-shot but would get my vote. Carey Mulligan was exquisite as Leonard Bernsteinâs long-suffering wife Felicia Montealegre and – with a strong international following – German actress Sandra Huller starred in both âAnatomyâ and âZone of Interest.â
MY PREDICTION: Lily Gladstone
For Best Actor, nominees are Bradley Cooper (âMaestroâ), Colman Domingo (âRustinâ), Paul Giamatti (âThe Holdoversâ), Cillian Murphy (âOppenheimerâ) & Jeffrey Wright (âAmerican Fictionâ).
Curmudgeonly Paul Giamatti was a natural as the odiferous, socially challenged professor stuck at a prep school over Christmas, as was Jeffrey Wright as the bitter, razor-sharp novelist courting fame and fortune. Bradley Cooper tackled Leonard Bernsteinâs personal angels and demons, and Cillian Murphy was convincing as the âfatherâ of the atomic bomb. Heâd be the first Irish-born actor to win Best Actor.
Playing Bayard Rustin who helped organize the 1993 March on Washington, Colman Domingo is the first Afro-Latino nominated as lead actor and only the second openly LGBTQ+ actor nominated for playing a gay character; Ian McKellen was the first for âGods and Monstersâ (1998).
MY PREDICTION: Cillian Murphy
For Best Supporting Actress, nominees are Emily Blunt (âOppenheimerâ), Danielle Brooks (âThe Color Purpleâ), America Ferrera (âBarbieâ), Jodie Foster (âNyadâ) & DaâVine Joy Randolph (âThe Holdoversâ).
Emily Blunt added humanity as the physicistâs wife, and Danielle Brooks reprised her acclaimed stage role. I cheered when America Ferrera delivered that powerful monologue in âBarbieâ about the complexities of being a woman, and this is the first time openly gay Jodie Foster has played a lesbian character. But the odds-on favorite is DaâVine Joy Randolph whose portrayal of a grieving mother gave âThe Holdoversâ dramatic depth and heart.
MY PREDICTION: DaâVine Joy Randolph
For Best Supporting Actor, nominees are Sterling K. Brown (âAmerican Fictionâ), Robert De Niro (âKillers of the Flower Moonâ), Robert Downey Jr. (âOppenheimerâ), Ryan Gosling (âBarbieâ) & Mark Ruffalo (âPoor Thingsâ).
Sterling K. Brown nails the gay cosmetic surgeon in a midlife crisis; Robert De Niro oozes evil on the Oklahoma prairie; Ryan Gosling was âKeough;â Mark Ruffalo was delightfully dastardly; but Robert Downey Jr. was so utterly contemptible.
MY PREDICTION: Robert Downey Jr.
For Best Editing, nominees are âAnatomy of a Fall,â âThe Holdovers,â âKillers of the Flower Moon,â âOppenheimerâ & âPoor Things.â
In the non-linear âOppenheimer,â Jennifer Lame cuts from color to black-and-white as the renowned scientist supervises the building, testing and aftermath of the atomic bomb.
Thelma Schoonmaker edited âKillers,â Scorseseâs first epic Western, to convey the scope of the tragedy. Given the absurdity of âPoor Things,â Yorgos Mavropsaridis makes the concept psychologically plausible, while Kevin Tent makes the wacky âThe Holdoversâ believable.
MY PREDICTION: âOppenheimerâ
For Best Cinematography, nominees are âEl Conde,â âKillers of the Flower Moon,â âMaestro,â âOppenheimerâ & âPoor Things.â
Nominated three times before, DP Rodrigo Prietoâs naturalistic âKillersâ encompassed the world of the Osage Nation, while DP Hoyte Van Hoytema scores his second nomination, depicting the explosive Trinity test with no CG simulation; he also worked with Kodak to develop black-and-white 70mm film stock for the monochromatic aspects of âOppenheimer.â Others in contention include Matthew Libatique for âMaestroâ and Robbie Ryan for âPoor Things.â
MY PREDICTION: âOppenheimerâ
For Best Production Design, nominees are âBarbie,â âKillers of the Flower Moon,â âNapoleon,â âOppenheimerâ & âPoor Things.â
How do you compare Sarah Greenwood/Katie Spencerâs dazzling pink plastic Barbie Land (which caused a global shortage of fluorescent pink paint) with Ruth De Jongâs reconstruction of the New Mexico desert town of Los Alamos and Jack Fiskâs depiction of the Reign of Terror that struck Oklahomaâs booming Osage Nation in the 1920s?
Arthur Max was charged with staging the French emperorâs six major battles, while Shona Heath/James Price were tasked with creating Gothic images in both black-and-white and color.
MY PREDICTION: âBarbieâ
For Best Original Screenplay, nominees are âAnatomy of a Fall,â âThe Holdovers,â âMaestro,â âMay-Decemberâ & âPast Lives.â
Justine Trietâs âAnatomy of a Fallâ revolves around a woman on trial for murdering her husband; Todd Haynesâ sad/sordid âMay-Decemberâ profiles an actress doing research on the woman sheâll portray; David Hemingson scored nostalgia points with âThe Holdoversâ; Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer delved into Leonard Bernsteinâs marriage in âMaestro;â and Celine Songâs âPast Livesâ may linger in peopleâs minds. Justine Triet could be the first French woman to win in this category.
MY PREDICTION: âAnatomy of a Fallâ
For Best Adapted Screenplay, nominees are âAmerican Fiction,â âBarbie,â âOppenheimer,â âPoor Thingsâ & âThe Zone of Interest.â
Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach crafted a smart, witty script that packs a feminist punch; they could win since Gerwig was snubbed as Best Director. Yet the front-runner is Christopher Nolan who made every word count with real-life characters in âOppenheimer.â Jonathan Glazerâs âZoneâ goes behind-the-scenes at Auschwitz death camp; Yorgos Lanthimosâs âPoor Thingsâ is a macabre coming-of-age tale. But perhaps itâs Cord Jeffersonâs âAmerican Fiction,â skewering the publishing industry, thatâs the most surprising.
MY PREDICTION: âAmerican Fictionâ
For Best International Film, nominees are âIo Capitanoâ (Italy), âPerfect Daysâ (Japan), âSociety of the Snowâ (Spain), âThe Teachers Loungeâ (Germany) & âThe Zone of Interestâ (United Kingdom).
âIo Capitanoâ follows a teenage Senegalese immigrantâs quest to reach Italy. Wim Wendersâ âPerfect Daysâ follows a Japanese toilet cleanerâs simple city routine. âSociety of the Snowâ is a real-life survival thriller. âThe Teachers Longeâ revolves around an idealistic instructor. âThe Zone of Interestâ evokes the horrors of the Holocaust; it could score the first UK win in this category since the main dialogue is not English.
Although it copped Best Picture, Best Director & Best Original Screenplay nominations, âAnatomy of a Fallâ is not eligible since France did not choose to submit it as its entry.
MY PREDICTION: âThe Zone of Interestâ
For Best Animated Feature, nominees are âThe Boy and the Heron,â âElemental,â âNimona,â âRobot Dreamsâ & âSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.â
Hayao Miyazakiâs hand-drawn âBoyâ will probably the last that the 82 year-old Japanese master will direct. âElementalâ boasts a wondrous character-driven narrative, while âNimonaâ profiles a female who just wants to be seen for who she is. So does might make right? This âSpider-Manâ sequel made $690.5 million at the worldwide box-office.
MY PREDICTION: âSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verseâ
For Best Visual Effects, nominees are âThe Creator,â âGodzilla Minus One,â âGuardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3,â âMission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part Oneâ & âNapoleon.â
Whatâs extraordinary is that VFX veteran Neil Corbould (winner for the original âGladiatorâ & âGravityâ) supervised three of the five nominated films. Tom Cruiseâs âMissionâ franchise upped its game with the Fiat 500 car chase in Rome and the spectacular Orient Express train sequence where the train plummeted from the exploding bridge, one carriage at a time; the legendary French emperor âNapoleonâ fought epic battles involving massive crowds; and âThe Creatorâ was filled with fabricated pyrotechnics and explosions. Problem is: how will voters for Corbould chose among these three films?
And letâs not forget that in its 70-year franchise history, this is the first VFX nomination for a âGodzillaâ film.
MY PREDICTION: âGodzilla Minus Oneâ
For Best Costume Design, nominees are âBarbie,â âKillers of the Flower Moon,â âNapoleon,â âOppenheimerâ & âPoor Things.â
âBarbieâ is the dazzling favorite – with Jacqueline Durran covering Mattelâs fashion history and tailoring it to the story narrative. For âKillers,â costumer Jacqueline West worked with Pendelton to secure 1,000 authentic Osage Nation blankets.
For âPoor Things,â Holly Waddington conveyed traumatized Belaâs transition from wearing a white silk cape to the futuristic use of latex and plastic. In âNapoleon,â Janty Yates went for neo-classical fashion while David Crossman handled the military garb. And Ellen Mirojnick chose those iconic three-pieces suits for the titular âOppenheimer.â
MY PREDICTION: âBarbieâ
For Best Makeup & Hairstyling, nominees are âGolda,â âMaestro,â âOppenheimer,â âPoor Thingsâ & âSociety of the Snow.â
Bradley Cooperâs nose in âMaestroâ was the most controversial transformation but can it win a third Oscar for Kazu Hiro? Equally admirable was Luisa Abelâs turning Robert Downey Jr. into elderly Admiral Lewis Strauss in âOppenheimerâ and Karen Hartley Thomas molding Helen Mirren into âGoldaâ Meir. For âPoor Things,â Nadia Stacey transformed Emma Stone from feral to outlandish and made Willem Dafoeâs deformed face a prosthetic marvel.
MY PREDICTION: âMaestroâ
For Best Sound, nominees are âThe Creator,â âMaestro,â âMission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part One,â âOppenheimerâ & âThe Zone of Interest.â
With its subatomic and cosmic sounds, âOppenheimerâ is a favorite but the more intimate visceral approach for âMission Impossibleâ made it memorable. Yet in âZone,â it was only sound that conveyed the scope of the horrors that the audience did not witness.
MY PREDICTION: âOppenheimerâ
For Best Documentary, non-fiction nominees are âBobi White: The Peopleâs President,â âThe Eternal Memory,â âFour Daughters,â âTo Kill a Tigerâ & â20 Days in Mariupol.â
âBobi Whiteâ features a former Presidential candidate fighting against a vicious dictator in Uganda. Chilean Maite Alberdiâs âEternalâ resonates as a romantic story about the devastation of Alzheimerâs. âTigerâ chronicles rural womenâs difficulties to find justice in a deeply misogynistic society. Tunisiaâs âFour Daughtersâ blends real interviews with staged reenactments to show a motherâs struggle to understand why two of her girls joined ISIS in Libya. And â20 Daysâ is Pulitzer Prize-winner Mstyslav Chernovâs timely war journalist story.
MY PREDICTION: â20 Days in Mariupolâ
For Best Original Score, nominees are âAmerican Fiction,â âIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,â âKillers of the Flower Moon,â âOppenheimerâ & âPoor Things.â
At 91, John Williams is the oldest competitive award nominee. This yearâs nod for âIndiana Jonesâ brings his total to 54 – more than any other living person. (Walt Disney holds the record with 59.)
Composer Hildur Guonadottir began âOppenheimerâ with a violin solo, tracing the scientistâs intense emotional journey. British musician-turned-composer Jerskin Fendrix (a.k.a. Joscelin Dent-Pooley) is a contender for âPoor Thingsâ; to achieve dissonance, he told his musicians to âplay stupidâ during Bellaâs wobbly pieces. And âKillersâ was Robbie Robertson final score, making him a sentimental choice.
MY PREDICTION: âOppenheimerâ
For Best Original Song, nominees are âThe Fire Insideâ (âFlaminâ Hotâ), âIâm Just Kenâ (âBarbieâ), âIt Never Went Awayâ (âAmerican Symphonyâ), âWahzhazhe – A Song for My Peopleâ (âKillers of the Flower Moonâ) & âWhat Was I Made For?â (âBarbieâ).
Nominated 15 times and given an Honorary Oscar, veteran song writer Diane Warren has never won so perhaps âThe Fire Inside,â performed by Latin superstar Becky G, will prove lucky. But look out for siblings Billie Eilish and Finneas OâConnell who won for âNo Time to Dieâ (2022); a âWhat Was I Made Forâ win this year would make them the first songwriters to win twice in three years since Tim Rice won in 1995 & 1997 for songs from âThe Lion Kingâ and âEvita.â But then thereâs Mark Watson & Andrew Wyattâs âIâm Just Ken.â
MY PREDICTION: âWhat Was I Made For?â
For Best Animated Short Film, nominees are âLetter to a Pig,â âNinety-Five Senses,â âOur Uniformâ âPachydermeâ & âWar is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko.â
The Holocaust, morality and abuse are serious themes captured by this yearâs nominees.
MY PREDICTION: âLetter to a Pigâ
For Best Documentary Short Film, nominees are âThe ABCs of Book Banning,â âThe Barber of Little Rock,â âIsland in Between,â âThe Last Repair Shopâ and âNai Nai & Wai Po.â
They spotlight local heroes, urgent issues and a couple of grandmothers who make everything right.
MY PREDICTION: âThe ABCs of Book Banningâ
For Best Live Action Short Film, nominees are âThe After,â âInvincible,â âKnight of Fortune,â âRed, White and Blueâ & âThe Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.â
Despite their brief runtimes, all five successfully tackle complex issues. In âThe After,â David Oyelowo is a grief-stricken Uber-esque driver; âInvincibleâ focuses on a French suicide; âKnight of Fortuneâ explores grief in a morgue; âRed, White and Blueâ finds a pregnant single mother in need of an abortion thatâs illegal in Arkansas; and Wes Anderson adapts Roald Dahlâs flight of fancy in âHenry Sugar.â
MY PREDICTION: âThe Wonderful Story of Henry Sugarâ